On April 14, the World Steel Association (hereinafter referred to as the World Steel Association) released the latest short-term steel demand forecast report (2022-2023). The report shows that global steel demand will continue to grow by 0.4% in 2022 to 1,840.2 million tons, following a 2.7% increase in 2021. In 2023, global steel demand will continue to grow by 2.2% to 1,881.4 million tons. In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the current forecast results are highly uncertain.
The magnitude of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict varies by region, depending on the region’s direct trade and financial exposure to Russia and Ukraine. The conflict had a direct and devastating impact on Ukraine, and the European Union was also affected to a certain extent due to its high dependence on Russian energy.
Not only that, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also spread globally due to rising energy prices (especially the raw materials needed for steel production), resulting in continued disruption of supply chains in some regions, a problem that has plagued the global steel industry even before the conflict broke out. .
The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to spill over, superimposed on the slowdown of China's economic growth, the World Steel Association predicts that the growth of global steel demand in 2022 is expected to decrease. In addition, the continuous outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic andrising interest rates in some parts of the world have also brought risks of economic downturn. The expected tightening of U.S. monetary policy will increase the risk of financial fragility facing emerging economies.
The forecast for global steel demand in 2023 is highly uncertain. In addition, the geopolitical pattern surrounding Ukraine will have an extremely far-reaching impact on the global steel industry, including the adjustment of the global trade pattern, the transformation of energy trade and its impact on the energy transition, and the continuous reconfiguration of the global supply chain.
