Japan's Ministry of Economy and Industry once again made a pessimistic forecast on Japan's crude steel production in 2019, following the Japan Iron and Steel Alliance, Japanese media reported recently. It is predicted that Japan's crude steel production will reach 99.06 million tons in fy2019 (April 2019 to March 2020), 3.7% less than that in the previous fiscal year. This is not only the reduction of Japan's crude steel production for three consecutive years since fiscal year 2017, but also the first time that Japan's crude steel production has fallen below 100 million tons since the world financial crisis in 2008. According to the analysis, the reduction of crude steel production is mainly affected by the decrease of demand in downstream industries of manufacturing industry, and is also related to natural disasters such as typhoon.
Under the impact of Sino US trade frictions, China's economic growth slowed down, and steel consumption showed a comprehensive downward trend. Japan's auto sales performance is acceptable, but since the rise of consumption tax in October 2019, Japan's auto sales show a downward trend.
In addition to the reduction of demand, the 15th strong typhoon "FASI" in September 2019 ravaged Japan's junjin iron works, resulting in the collapse of the chimney and serious damage to production equipment, thus affecting steel production.
Japan's Ministry of Economy and Industry forecasts that Japan's crude steel production in the fourth quarter of fy19f (January March 2020) will be 24.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%.
According to the forecast of steel market demand in Japan in 2020, the situation in the first half of the fiscal year is still very severe, and whether the recovery in the second half of the fiscal year will depend on the trend of manufacturing industry.
