The Ukrainian Recycled Metals Association stated that in 2022, Ukraine's annual steel production will reach 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 69.5%; scrap steel purchases will reach 930,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 77.5%. In 2023, Ukraine's steel production may reach 12 million to 12.5 million tons, scrap steel supply may reach 1.5 million to 1.6 million tons, and scrap steel export may reach 300,000 to 320,000 tons.
A more realistic forecast is that Ukrainian steel companies will produce 7 million to 7.5 million tons of steel in 2023, and the purchase volume of scrap steel is expected to reach 1.2 million to 1.25 million tons.
Steel mills that remain in operation by Dec. 1, 2022 will retain their production potential, raw material supply chains intact and energy supplies adequate, the association said. At the same time, scrap purchases in Ukraine in 2023 will depend on the price situation in the local market, fair pricing mechanisms and export opportunities for companies specialized in scrap procurement and processing. Export opportunities will continue to stimulate the development and functioning of the Ukrainian scrap metal market. In addition, measures such as the removal of export duties and the revision of existing legislation can stabilize prices in the market, which will stimulate increased scrap purchases and supplies.
At the same time, the association pointed out that due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts, a large number of infrastructures in the country have been destroyed, including a large amount of military equipment that needs to be disposed of after being destroyed, and the amount of scrap steel in the country has increased.
